Long range forecast of weather deviations
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Daily averaged temperature forecast and climate
This is a detailed view of the long range temperature series on which the above table is based.
Forecast available for Europe, US, Canada, Japan, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, India, Mexico, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa…
Reliability of long-range weather forecast
It is always a challenge and choose between detalization and reliability. A statistical generalization is used to achieve more significant level of reliability, which provide probability up to 70-75% that the forecast will come true as opposed to 50% of random forecast.
In mountainous areas, forecast and climatic values may look unrealistic due to the influence of local conditions and altitude difference.
Each value of daily mean temperature obtained by averaging of the ensemble of model runs, therefor it only slightly changes each next day. Climate dataset include 10 years averaging and a light smoothing, that allow you to see how far forecast deviate from historical values.